How We Make Our Picks
Betting with Sports Betting Guide
A fair number of considerations and research go into our betting picks, it doesn’t matter if we’re looking at NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL or the PGA Tour, our goal is to come out with profit at the end of each month.
The leagues are working differently now than in the past with more congested schedules, this means that teams are more aware than ever of managing how much physical stress they’re putting on the players. We believe that this leads to more versatile matchups and opportunities offering favorable odds, matchups we can find by looking at the right data, current form and day to day considerations.
Optimizing our betting strategy
Because of these changing dynamics, we like to review our strategy every month as there should always be room for improvement – which is also why we keep our records in the same monthly time frame.
Another thing we do is compare our picks with other punters, if we see someone recommending the opposite outcome, it’s always taken into account before we place our bets and post our final picks. Does that lead to us sometimes missing out on bets that we initially liked? Sure, but it is what it is and we believe that pick confidence is important.
All of our picks also need to be available at our recommended sportsbooks, with them offering competitive odds on all events and games that we analyze. We also make use of ongoing offers from these sites in order to maximize our continuous volume. This way we bring in bonus money which we can convert to cash, all generated from our bets.
While all of this plays in, we also have some more specific thoughts on each of the sports we bet on. See below for the sports we cover.
MLB, NBA and NHL Picks
These leagues share the trait of a long season, so day to day lineup matchups are a big consideration.
From season to season the dynamics change in these leagues that can affect betting outcomes. Rule changes and game dynamics built on stat analysis definitely change how the game is played in these leagues on higher levels. Teams look use this to try and maximize their performance and so should we.
Some other elements we think a lot about when it comes to making picks:
- Recent performance, long seasons lead to changes in performance which sportsbooks aren’t always quick enough to adapt to.
- Short term fatigue, is one team more loaded in their schedule it can definitely have an effect on whether or not they’re able to perform again.
- In the playoffs, matchups and injury factors become very important as players battle through injuries in situations where they would have sat out if it was a regular season game.
NFL Picks
Matchups, matchups, matchups. The NFL season is now 17 games long in the regular season, so teams give their all every week and focus on heavily preparing against each of the teams they face.
High intensity matchups combined with injury factors usually makes for good betting opportunities.
Teams can also go through quite a bit of performance change over the course of a season as they figure out how to make best use of their offensive and defensive schemes, and teams making strategy changes will always be a knot to untie for sportsbooks.
PGA Tour Picks
We love golf betting due to it’s forever changing conditions, and hitting a winner within fields of 150+ players is always a cool experience.
Our main considerations are recent player performance, combined with how they match up with the course played and conditions faced.
Golf odds depend a fair bit on world rankings, so there are plenty of opportunities to pick up good value on players who are on an upgoing curve at any part during the season. Outside of just trying to hit tournament winners, we also look to find value in matchup bets, top 10 and top 20 finishes whenever possible.
Nascar and UFC Picks
For NASCAR and UFC picks we mainly rely on a friendly source who’s proven to be profitable over a number of years – all picks presented here we bet ourselves as well.
If our source stops proving profitable over a longer period, we will of course reconsider the situation, but for now we're confident that all picks presented for our readers represent good value.
Other Sports
We might bring a pick on other sports from time to time, an example would be Tennis, soccer - usually MLS, Champions League or English Premier League. Here we also have a specific source who advise on us bets from time to time, we like to match these up with other tipsters and look especially for ones where the bet recommendations align.
Euro 2020 Picks
The Euro 2020 international soccer tournament has completed it's first rounds of games and we've been matching picks from a few soccer experts to see how they line up with those of our own source for soccer bets.
So far the results have been good and it's made us confident in providing Euro 2020 picks here on SportsBettingGuide for the remainder of the tournament - just stay tuned on the blog.
